Seventeen picks, fifteen projection sources, and a hundred thousand simulated seasons, all pointed at three questions: what you did in May, what the news has done to it since, and what to do about it before Week 1.
| Team | Record | Pts/wk | Playoffs | 1 seed | Title | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NICK | 9.3–4.7 | 185.9 | 95.9% | 49.9% | 41.3% | |
| Austin | 8.2–5.8 | 176.5 | 87.7% | 21.7% | 22.3% | |
| Dane | 7.4–6.6 | 169.8 | 74.5% | 10.7% | 12.1% | |
| Tyler | 6.6–7.4 | 164.7 | 58% | 5% | 6.8% | |
| Tommy | 6.5–7.5 | 166.0 | 56.1% | 4.2% | 6.5% | |
| Olivia | 6.2–7.8 | 162.4 | 49.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | |
| Max | 6.4–7.6 | 162.5 | 51.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | |
| Abdur | 5.3–8.7 | 154.3 | 27.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
You project first in every model, with a title probability between 39 and 42 percent depending on which one you trust. A random team in this league wins 12.5 percent of the time, so you are at a bit over three times your fair share.
The five-team playoff makes your seeding matter enormously: the top three seeds skip straight to the semifinals. You take one of those byes in 85 percent of seasons.
Your two real problems have not changed: Week 11, and the fact that a five-team bracket turns even the best roster into a two-coin-flip proposition in December.
| Team | Engine | Consensus | Risk | Team-noise | Avg title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NICK | 9.5–4.5 | 9.5–4.5 | 9.3–4.7 | 9.3–4.7 | 40.5% |
| Austin | 8.7–5.3 | 8.3–5.7 | 8.2–5.8 | 8.0–6.0 | 22.7% |
| Dane | 7.7–6.3 | 7.3–6.7 | 7.4–6.6 | 6.9–7.1 | 11.3% |
| Tyler | 6.5–7.5 | 6.7–7.3 | 6.6–7.4 | 6.9–7.1 | 6.9% |
| Tommy | 7.1–6.9 | 6.3–7.7 | 6.5–7.5 | 6.3–7.7 | 7.3% |
| Olivia | 6.2–7.8 | 6.4–7.6 | 6.2–7.8 | 7.2–6.8 | 6.6% |
| Max | 6.1–7.9 | 6.1–7.9 | 6.4–7.6 | 6.0–8.0 | 3.7% |
| Abdur | 4.3–9.7 | 5.2–8.8 | 5.3–8.7 | 5.4–8.6 | 1.0% |
You said Jacobs and Nacua both dodge suspension and both play Week 1, so the model now runs it that way: a 10 percent residual on a Jacobs ban and near zero on Nacua. The doom versions still exist below, filed under scenarios, which is where they belong.
Everyone covers byes a little easier now, and since the sims always assumed teams would fill holes from the wire, the projections barely twitch. The real change is that you can hold a stash (Ferguson, Brooks, Jones) without cutting anyone you'd miss.
You work the wire harder than anyone in this league, so the model now hands you 0.8 extra points on any slot you fill from waivers, with Dane and Austin getting 0.3. That's an assumption rather than a measurement, disclosed here so you know it's baked in, and while it's small over a season, it concentrates in exactly the bye weeks and injury weeks where it counts.
First reports made him Carolina's new starter, but the fresher ones say Hubbard's hamstring is healing, he's hit 20 miles an hour in rehab, and he's expected for Week 1. Brooks came back from two ACL tears to play into the second quarter of a preseason game, which is a real comeback, but it's a tandem role rather than a takeover. He's worth a bench spot, just not your first claim.
You called him the complicated one, and that's right. The projections carry him at 11 a game, his pre-injury rate was 14.7, tied for second among all tight ends, and PFF's printed ceiling says top three. The gap between those two players is worth about four points of title probability, and it's why he now has his own section.
Start with what the draft engine wanted. At pick 3 its board said take Puka Nacua. You took Bijan Robinson instead, because Bijan was the market's number one player and Nacua was not.
Eleven picks later, Nacua was somehow still there, and you took him at 14.
Here is why the order mattered. Nacua occasionally slides, because superflex rooms spend early picks on quarterbacks. Bijan never slides: in the simulations, if you pass on him at 3, he is gone before pick 14 every single time. So taking Bijan first and hoping on Nacua was the only path that could end with both. It did, and then Christian McCaffrey fell to 19 on top of it.
I simulated 200,000 superflex drafts to answer this properly. In a typical room, the chance that slot 3 walks away with Bijan, Nacua, and McCaffrey is 5.5 percent, about 1 in 18.
Your room was hungrier than typical: of your opponents' sixteen picks in the first three rounds, nine were quarterbacks, and every quarterback taken shoves an elite skill player down the board. Rerun the simulation with a room that hungry and the odds improve to roughly 1 in 7. The truth for your specific draft sits between those two numbers.
So it was not a miracle, but it was an uncommon outcome that needed three things at once. The room had to spend heavily on quarterbacks (it did), you had to take Bijan before Nacua (you did), and McCaffrey's injury history had to scare exactly enough people (it did). Those three players are the core of why your starting lineup projects about nine points a week ahead of Austin in second place, and sixteen ahead of third.
| Pick | Player | Pos | Market rank | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.03 | Bijan Robinson Right call | RB | 1 | +2 |
| 2.06 | Puka Nacua Perfect | WR | 5 | +9 |
| 3.03 | Christian McCaffrey Perfect | RB | 7 | +12 |
| 4.06 | Drake London Perfect | WR | 23 | +7 |
| 5.03 | Rashee Rice A wash | WR | 37 | -2 |
| 6.06 | Josh Jacobs Small miss | RB | 39 | +7 |
| 7.03 | Tetairoa McMillan Fine | WR | 46 | +5 |
| 8.06 | Jaxson Dart Excellent | QB | 36 | +26 |
| 9.03 | DeVonta Smith Biggest miss | WR | 53 | +14 |
| 10.06 | Tucker Kraft You beat the engine | TE | 78 | 0 |
| 11.03 | Bhayshul Tuten Free | RB | 75 | +8 |
| 12.06 | Christian Watson Free | WR | 81 | +13 |
| 13.03 | Kyler Murray Good | QB | 84 | +15 |
| 14.06 | Josh Downs Neutral | WR | 127 | -17 |
| 15.03 | Brandon Aubrey Wasted pick | K | 207 | -92 |
| 16.06 | Tyler Shough Best value | QB | 82 | +44 |
| 17.03 | Vikings DST Fine | DST | 218 | -87 |
At picks 78, 83, and 94 the engine begged you to take a quarterback. Its board had passers ranked first, second, and third all three times. You took Tucker Kraft, Bhayshul Tuten, and Christian Watson instead, and you were right all three times: Baker Mayfield, the quarterback it wanted at 78, lasted until pick 113. Tyler Shough lasted until your pick at 126.
The reason the engine was wrong is the reason this league is different: three teams had already filled both quarterback slots and stopped bidding. The position never dried up. You banked +26, +22, and +50 in market value on Dart, Murray, and Shough, and the entire room cost you picks 62, 99, and 126.
Each card: what the moment looked like, what the engine said, and the verdict now that the news has settled.
The engine liked Nacua better here, 211.8 to 173.8, and said so, but you took Bijan, and it worked out for a reason the engine's board doesn't show: Bijan never gets back to pick 14 in any simulation, while Nacua sometimes does, so the order you took them in was the only order that could land both. Four more quarterbacks went between this pick and your next one, Caleb, Maye, Lamar, and Hurts, and none of them cost you anything because you were never taking one.
The engine's number one player was still sitting there at 14, with a 1 percent chance of reaching your next pick. Seven quarterbacks went in the first thirteen picks, and every one of them paid you. He was the WR1 in points per game last year, his 159 points of value over the baseline is the biggest number in this draft for any player at any pick, and this is the pick your whole season is built on.
Top of the engine's board again, with a 1 percent chance he lasted again. The pick worth arguing about is Bowers, who went three spots later to Austin, but the sim priced that swap at 17 points across a full season, which rounds to nothing per week, so it was a coin flip either way. You took the version where you own two of the top three backs, and the scarcity math supports it, since running back falls about 7 points from the top of the startable range to the middle while tight end has two names and then a cliff. The 413 touches at age 30 are the bill for all of this, and you knew that when you signed.
Your fourth straight pick off the top of the engine's board, at plus 7 against market, with an 11 percent chance he came back around. The receiver run started right here, with five of them gone in the next nine picks, and you got out one turn ahead of it.
The engine leaned Pickens and Olave, and both were gone within eight picks. The gap is real but small: Pickens projects 32 more points for the season, mostly because Rice keeps missing games, while Rice is the better player per game when he's on the field. What this pick is really for is trades, because Rice's name trades like a top-15 pick while he's your fourth receiver, and both of the realistic deals later in this report are built on that mismatch.
Zay Flowers sat on top of the engine's board and went to Max six picks later, and he'd be in your flex right now while Jacobs wouldn't, a difference of about 1.6 points a week. Nobody drafting on May information could have priced the arrest that surfaced later, so grade the process rather than the news. The part that was knowable is positional: you already had two elite backs, so any back taken here was fighting for your third flex spot, and in full PPR that spot belongs to receivers.
Tenth on the engine's board, plus 5 against market, and the 25 percent rookie target share is real. Carolina's offense is the reason he sits behind three receivers you drafted after him, but it's a fine pick anyway, because he's young, his name is worth more than his lineup spot, and a roster that plans to trade wants a few players like that.
This is where the draft turned: twenty-six picks of value, the engine's second-ranked quarterback, and your first one after watching sixteen leave the board. The bet was that the position would stay deep enough to wait, and it did. Everything since has moved his way, with a rebuilt roster, a locked job, and the fifth-easiest quarterback playoff schedule in the league.
Bo Nix was the engine's name here and Tommy got him six picks later. His 18.4 a game would start in your superflex over Kyler, which makes this your biggest single miss, at about 1.3 a week. Then the A.J. Brown trade happened, Smith's world changed overnight, and the pick you actually made has gained more value since draft day than almost any pick in this league, so you missed and got paid for it anyway.
The engine had him 88th and wanted a quarterback, and you took him anyway. Every scrap of news since says you were right: fifteen sources now have him TE4 to TE7, PFF has published a top-three ceiling, and the quarterback the engine was yelling about lasted another 35 picks. The alternative was a season of waiver tight ends, which runs about 2 points a week worse than even the managed-snaps version of Kraft, and the full case for him gets its own section later in this report.
Plus 13 against market on a second-year back the market thought was inheriting a job, though the committee news since has trimmed that. At pick 83 you paid a bench spot for a lottery ticket, and the jackpot is still printed on it, because if Jacksonville's committee tilts his way he's a weekly starter you got for nothing.
Plus 19 against market, because the market was still pricing an ACL that's twenty months old. He already came back and produced last season, and Green Bay handed him $111 million in June, which tells you what they think. He's your fifth receiver, which on this roster makes him a trade chip rather than a bench player.
The engine's top name, at plus 22 against market, on a situation nobody had priced yet: he was named Minnesota's starter in mid-August, throws to Justin Jefferson, and holds the second-easiest quarterback playoff schedule in football. A six-time weekly starter as your third quarterback is the whole reason waiting at the position was right.
Plus 3 against market, fourteenth on the engine's board, and the thesis died when Indianapolis signed Keenan Allen into the same slot role. There's no harm done, since the pick cost nothing and Downs is first out the door when a waiver claim needs his spot, and the engine's alternative was Mayfield, who would have made your lineup worse.
The best kicker in football, taken eleven picks before anyone else was going to take him, when he had a 98 percent chance of still being there on your next turn. It cost zero points, but it did cost one more ticket in the rounds that produced Watson and Tuten. The note for next August is that best kicker to twelfth-best runs about 1.7 points a week, so the last two rounds are always the right price.
Fifty picks under market, the biggest gap in the whole draft. His starting job was announced in January, he closed last season as the QB6 per game over his final seven starts, and he still fell to the sixteenth round, where you took him. New Orleans holds the easiest schedule in football by 2025 opponent win totals, and he's now your bench insurance, your Week 8 answer, and the headline in two of your three trade packages, all from one pick nobody else wanted.
The engine's top-ranked unit, in the last round, which is the only round to spend on a defense. Its Week 6 bye lines up with the Tommy game you're heavily favored in, so you were always going to stream that week anyway. You've already churned the spot once since draft day, Vikings out and Jaguars in, which is exactly how the position is supposed to work.
I gave the engine your seventeen picks and let the other seven managers draft exactly what they drafted, and its roster projects the same weekly score as yours, to the decimal. The rosters themselves look nothing alike, though, and the differences are the interesting part.
The room was spending its early picks on quarterbacks either way, so the engine's preferred order landed the same big three you got. From there it split off, taking George Pickens and Zay Flowers, the two names this report keeps listing as your misses, and Bo Nix at 62 instead of Dart.
It never took Tucker Kraft, it finished with Jake Ferguson at tight end and no Dart, and it spent pick 67 on Travis Etienne. In other words, the engine repaired your two receiver misses by giving up your two best upside swings, and on average that trade nets out to exactly zero.
The engine's version has a slightly higher floor, while yours has Kraft's top-three ceiling, Dart's legs, and more name value to trade with. You tied a machine on averages, beat it on upside, and did it while overriding it three times when it was wrong. The one thing it did better than you is that it never spent pick 115 on a kicker.
| Pick | Engine took | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1.03 | Puka Nacua | WR |
| 2.06 | Bijan Robinson | RB |
| 3.03 | Christian McCaffrey | RB |
| 4.06 | Drake London | WR |
| 5.03 | George Pickens | WR |
| 6.06 | Rashee Rice | WR |
| 7.03 | Zay Flowers | WR |
| 8.06 | Bo Nix | QB |
| 9.03 | Travis Etienne Jr. | RB |
| 10.06 | Kyler Murray | QB |
| 11.03 | DeVonta Smith | WR |
| 12.06 | Bhayshul Tuten | RB |
| 13.03 | Tyler Shough | QB |
| 14.06 | Christian Watson | WR |
| 15.03 | Jake Ferguson | TE |
| 16.06 | Brandon Aubrey | K |
| 17.03 | Vikings DST | DST |
Nix went six picks later and scores about 18 a game, which would start in your superflex, so this one costs you about 1.3 points a week. It is your biggest miss, and it is small.
Flowers went at 52, and he would start for you today while Jacobs barely cracks the lineup, a difference of about 1.6 a week.
He had a 98 percent chance of lasting to your next pick, so the cost in points was nearly zero. The cost in roster room was one bench body you now wish you had.
A true coin flip: Pickens plays more games, Rice scores more per game, and there is nothing to regret either way.
Bowers instead of McCaffrey at 3.03: worth 17 points across a whole season, 0.0 per week. A coin flip you won by getting the two-back build.
Kraft at 78 when the engine had him 88th: the engine was wrong. Passing on him for the best available player would have cost 8.3 points a week, because you would have owned zero tight ends.
Best Allen at 1.01 and Daniels back at 2.08 built the best quarterback room in the league inside two picks. McBride at 3.01 was the right price for a top-two tight end, and Mayfield at 14.01, an 18-point starter as the third quarterback, was the kind of pick nobody notices until October.
Worst Hampton at 5.01 turned into a three-man committee within a month, and Tyson at 17.01 pulled a hamstring before the ink dried, which is just bad luck. The real cost was rounds 4 through 9, spent on solid veterans while the receiver run went off around him, because solid veterans are exactly what the wire hands out for free.
Best Gibbs at 1.02 got him the best running back in football, Barkley at 3.02 was fair, and Kelce at 5.02 at least bought a résumé.
Skipping the misses here at your request.
Best A.J. Brown at 4.04 came before the trade to New England improved his situation for free, Loveland at 5.04 was the third-best tight end at pick 36 and might age into the steal of the middle rounds, and Caleb plus Herbert inside two rounds is a real quarterback room.
Skipping the misses here at your request.
Best Maye at 1.05, St. Brown at 2.04, and Lamb at 3.05 made hers arguably the best draft at the table through three rounds, and Irving at 8.04 landed days before the news confirmed his shoulder was fully healed.
Worst Then the reaching started. Mahomes at 4.05, months off knee surgery, as the backup quarterback is a pick with two outcomes and nothing in between, and Stowers, Coleman, and TeSlaa all went 20-plus picks early. She finished minus 180 against market, second worst in the room, almost all of it after round four.
Best Bowers at 3.06, the consensus number-one tight end ranked 22nd overall in superflex and taken 22nd overall, was the cleanest pick of the draft. Purdy at 7.06 and Stafford at 8.06 built a three-quarterback room for one mid-round pick each, and Smith-Njigba at 1.06 was simply correct.
Worst Henderson at 11.06 became half a committee and Pitts at 10.03 is the annual talent tax that never pays out, but that's small stuff. His one operational blunder was waiting until the final pick for a kicker the platform barely recognizes.
Best Lamar at 1.07 into Hurts at 2.02 was the best back-to-back turn anyone had, and Achane at 4.02 got better all offseason as Miami kept promising him volume.
Worst Then he drafted three tight ends for one lineup slot, two of them now hurt or fading, and spent 16.07 on Hubbard three weeks before Hubbard lost his job. Rounds one through five built a contender, and rounds six through seventeen leaked the whole surplus back out.
Best Burrow at 1.08 into Chase at 2.01 was the highest-ceiling turn in the league, and correlated, so the good weeks pay double. Nix at 10.08 was the best quarterback value of the entire draft, and Fannin at 9.01 keeps looking smarter as Cleveland features him.
Worst Jeanty and Love both got hurt in August, which isn't drafting, just weather. Harvey at 13.08 was already a role-collapse case on draft night. His actual structural error was the calendar: Burrow, Chase, and Jefferson all rest in Week 6, and the schedule made him play you that week.
Read from behavior, not gossip: how each manager actually spent picks is the best predictor of how they answer offers.
He never reached once all day. He drafts floors, trusts veterans, and has no interest in lottery tickets, so offer him certainty and he'll listen, and offer him upside and he'll pass.
He paid sticker or worse for every name he recognized: Kelce, Kittle, Deebo, Diggs. Read that as a manual rather than an insult, because Rashee Rice looks like a haul to him and looks like your fourth receiver to you.
He never reached worse than 20 spots and never stole better than Loveland. He drafts off consensus lists, which means he'll evaluate your trades off consensus lists too, so make your offers look fair on FantasyPros and not just in the math.
She reached for her guys over and over, unapologetically, because she drafts on belief. Bring her a story she can believe about the player she's getting, because a spreadsheet will lose that conversation.
He's the one manager who will check your math, because he did the same math himself. He reads lowballs instantly, so the only offers worth sending him are ones that are actually good for him too.
He was elite for five rounds and then coasted for twelve, ending up with three tight ends for one slot. He's the manager most likely to hit a bye-week roster crunch, which makes him the best customer for a small trade at a markup.
He stacked Burrow and Chase back-to-back and stole Nix fifty picks under market, so he hunts ceilings and knows what things cost. Sell him floors and keep the volatility for yourself.
| Player | FantasyPros | CBS | ESPN | Sleeper | FBG | Draft Sharks | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 309.9 | 358.7* | 300.3 | 296.5 | 288.1 | 319 | 18.1 |
| Kyler Murray | 280.2 | 329.6* | 250.6 | 274.7 | 282.1 | 325 | 17.1 |
| Tyler Shough | 285.3 | 324.1* | 266.0 | 270.9 | 266.8 | 296 | 16.6 |
| Player | FantasyPros | CBS | ESPN | Sleeper | FBG | Draft Sharks | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 369.5 | 391.8 | 352.8 | 324.9 | 336.1 | 346 | 20.8 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 334.7 | 318.3 | 343.2 | 291.0 | 326.3 | 331 | 19.2 |
| Josh Jacobs | 248.6 | 244.5 | 259.1 | 202.6 | 229.3 | 254 | 14.5 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 207.3 | 194.5 | 205.3 | 174.8 | 172.6 | 182 | 11.4 |
| Player | FantasyPros | CBS | ESPN | Sleeper | FBG | Draft Sharks | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 339.8 | 373.6 | 356.3 | 312.5 | 312.0 | 357 | 20.2 |
| Drake London | 287.1 | 321.1 | 269.8 | 250.2 | 257.1 | 277 | 16.4 |
| Rashee Rice | 274.1 | 304.1 | 271.0 | 229.3 | 222.0 | 269 | 15.8 |
| DeVonta Smith | 236.9 | 239.9 | 239.2 | 229.2 | 236.1 | 242 | 14.2 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 233.7 | 243.6 | 236.5 | 223.0 | 212.6 | 223 | 13.6 |
| Christian Watson | 195.2 | 197.8 | 185.1 | 207.6 | 182.6 | 226 | 11.9 |
| Josh Downs | 163.7 | 175.0 | 157.7 | 172.3 | 163.2 | 201 | 10.3 |
| Player | FantasyPros | CBS | ESPN | Sleeper | FBG | Draft Sharks | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Kraft | 178.4 | 199.2 | 180.7 | 174.4 | 176.4 | 195 | 11.0 |
| Player | FantasyPros | CBS | ESPN | Sleeper | FBG | Draft Sharks | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aubrey | 153.0 | 154.0 | 171.7 | 116.0 | 146.2 | 177 | 9.0 |
| Vikings D/ST | -- | 240.0* | 74.3 | 92.0 | 136.5 | 111 | 6.3 |
Your quarterbacks are worth far more in this format than their normal rankings suggest: Dart jumps from 94th overall in standard leagues to 22nd in superflex rankings, Murray from 112 to 37, Shough from 125 to 49. The reverse is true for tight ends, which get cheaper in superflex drafts. That combination, quarterbacks you got late plus tight ends the format discounts, is the arbitrage the trade section is built on.
High Draft Sharks QB11, 325 pts, SF pick 27
Low ESPN 250.6 pts, overall 165
The argument is what a new team and a new offense do for him. Draft Sharks sees a Kevin O'Connell reclamation with a 419-point ceiling, while ESPN prices him as a low-end QB2, a 74-point projection gap on the same player.
High CBS 304.1 pts over a full 17 games
Low Footballguys 222.0 pts over 14.3 games
They're arguing about availability, not talent. FantasyPros experts range from WR6 to WR23, and Footballguys is the only major source explicitly projecting under 15 games, even though he hasn't exceeded 8 games in a season since 2023.
High ESPN 259.1 pts, RB13 tier
Low Sleeper/RotoWire 202.6 pts, PFN RB19
Everything here hangs on the open criminal investigation. Rankers assuming 17 games have him RB12 to RB13, while those pricing a suspension have him RB18 to RB19.
High PFN TE4, overall 51; PFF sees a path to top-three
Low Footballguys TE7; ADP as late as 100.5 on FFC
The disagreement is about the snap restriction rather than the knee, which everyone agrees is ahead of schedule. The fight is over whether a reported pitch count to midseason costs him three to five weeks of TE1 usage.
High CBS 391.8 pts (23.0 per game)
Low 4for4 304.8 pts (17.9 per game)
An 87-point gap on the consensus RB2, and the split comes down to how run-heavy Kevin Stefanski's Atlanta actually becomes and how much Brian Robinson Jr. eats.
High CBS 321.1 pts (18.9 per game)
Low Sleeper 250.2 pts (14.7 per game)
This one is pure quarterback uncertainty, since Atlanta had not named a Week 1 starter as of August 25, with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. splitting first-team reps.
High Draft Sharks 226 pts, WR22
Low Footballguys 182.6 pts, WR34
The question is whether the market has cleared its ACL discount. Draft Sharks projects 0.80 games missed, while Footballguys still prices injury risk that the evidence no longer supports.
High ESPN 343.2 pts
Low Sleeper/RotoWire 291.0 pts
This is about age, 30 years old on 413 touches, plus a three-week undisclosed absence in August. Draft Sharks puts his injury probability at 78 percent, among the highest in the dataset.
| Slot | Player | Pts/wk | vs wire | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jaxson Dart | 18.1 | +1.2 | |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | 20.8 | +10.2 | |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | 19.2 | +8.6 | |
| WR | Puka Nacua | 20.2 | +8.8 | |
| WR | Drake London | 16.4 | +5.0 | |
| TE | Tucker Kraft | 11.0 | +1.8 | |
| FLEX | Rashee Rice | 15.8 | +4.4 | |
| FLEX | Josh Jacobs | 14.5 | +3.1 | |
| FLEX | DeVonta Smith | 14.2 | +2.8 | |
| SF | Kyler Murray | 17.1 | +0.2 | |
| DST | Vikings | 6.3 | -0.3 | |
| K | Brandon Aubrey | 9.0 | +0.8 | |
| Total | 182.6 | +46.6 |
Your running backs and receivers add 43 points a week over the wire. Your quarterbacks add 1.4. That was the plan: spend premium picks only where the wire cannot save you, and let the format hand you quarterbacks late. It is why you project 9 points a week clear of Austin and 16 clear of Dane.
Take every rostered and available player, sort each position best to worst, and look at how fast the points fall away. This is the entire draft strategy argument in four lists.
Sixteen starters needed, and the 16th is within 4.4 points of the 1st. This is the flattest curve in the league, and it explains why waiting cost you almost nothing.
Sixteen starters needed and the curve drops 7.3 points across them. The cliff after the top three is exactly where Bijan, McCaffrey and Gibbs sit.
Forty starting-and-flex jobs and an 8-point drop. Elite receivers are the scarcest points in this format, which makes Nacua your most valuable player.
Two elite players, then an immediate cliff to the 11-point tier. This list is the whole argument for the Bowers and McBride trades, and for holding Kraft.
| Record | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| 5–9 | 1.4% | |
| 6–8 | 4.2% | |
| 7–7 | 9.3% | |
| 8–6 | 16.6% | |
| 9–5 | 21.4% | |
| 10–4 | 21.3% | |
| 11–3 | 15.5% | |
| 12–2 | 7.2% | |
| 13–1 | 2.3% |
| Your seed | How often | Title odds from there | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 seed | 49% | 42% | |
| 2 seed | 23% | 39% | |
| 3 seed | 13% | 40% | |
| 4 seed | 7% | 27% | |
| 5 seed | 4% | 26% |
| Record | How often | 1 seed | Top-3 bye | Playoffs | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 1% |
| 6–8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 52% | 14% |
| 7–7 | 10% | 0% | 26% | 97% | 31% |
| 8–6 | 16% | 5% | 86% | 100% | 40% |
| 9–5 | 22% | 38% | 100% | 100% | 40% |
| 10–4 | 21% | 76% | 100% | 100% | 41% |
| 11–3 | 15% | 94% | 100% | 100% | 41% |
| 12–2 | 7% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 42% |
| 13–1 | 2% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 41% |
Opening day against the league's most balanced roster, which is another way of saying its most beatable good roster. Max has nobody who can win a week by himself, and you have three of them, so whatever version of Kraft shows up in September, this one shouldn't be close.
Tyler's quarterbacks will beat your quarterbacks by eight or ten points, and his other nine starters will give most of it back and then some. Fourteen weeks of this season come down to that same trade, and this is the first look at it.
September Olivia is the version you want to catch: Mahomes a month into his comeback, Nabers maybe not back at all, and Judkins still a mystery. The number is soft now, and the December version of this team is a different conversation.
Dane, round one. Allen and Daniels bank him 46 points before anyone else touches the field, the steadiest floor in the league, but you out-gun him everywhere else. This is the first of two meetings, and the tiebreak between you could end up deciding who rests in Week 15.
Rice and McMillan sit for the Kansas City and Carolina byes, but against Abdur, who loses Kelce and Bryce Young the same week, it barely registers. He'll be starting waiver-wire receivers in Week 5 of a fresh season.
Circle this one in whatever color means free. Tommy loses Burrow, Chase, Jefferson, and Jameson Williams to the same bye week, while you lose Kyler and a streamable defense. The 87 percent here is the biggest number the simulation prints for any game all season.
Austin without Trevor Lawrence, which for him just means Purdy and Stafford start instead, because three real quarterbacks means never actually having a quarterback problem. You lose Tuten. Going at least 1-1 against Austin this year matters more than the record shows, since the 1 seed may come down to it.
The trap week. Dart and Shough share this bye, and so does McCaffrey, so Kyler starts and the superflex comes off the wire. This is the closest thing to a coin flip on your schedule outside Week 11, and the whole Daniel Jones plan exists for this one Sunday. Claim him on Wednesday, not Saturday night, because someone else will eventually notice a free 17-point quarterback sitting out there.
Tyler again, with nobody on bye anywhere. By now you'll know whether his LaPorta bet at tight end survived September, which is most of what separates this from the Week 2 version of the same game.
Olivia without Irving and Waddle, you without DeVonta Smith. She's down two starters to your one, and her medical file will have declared itself one way or the other by November.
Six starters on bye for you, while Dane loses a kicker. The full plan lives in its own section, but the short version is that the 33 percent already assumes you made both waiver claims, and skipping them drops it near one-in-six. And if you lose this one anyway, nothing is broken, because look at what Week 12 is.
Zero byes in the entire NFL this week, so it's your full roster against Abdur's, a 31-point projected gap and the second-biggest mismatch the schedule produces all year. The schedule put your softest landing directly after your hardest fall.
Tommy without Jeanty on the Vegas bye, you without Josh Downs, who wasn't starting anyway. The bye math tilts your way against Tommy twice in one season, which is the kind of luck you don't apologize for.
The finale, against Austin, quite possibly for the 1 seed and quite possibly a preview of the final three weeks later. Aubrey rests on Dallas's bye, so stream a kicker Tuesday and forget about it. If the whole season funnels into one afternoon, it's this one.
All 56 games, simulated. A few of them matter to you even though you are not playing in them.
| Week | Game | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | Dane v Max | 50–50 |
| Wk 13 | Austin v Abdur | 50–50 |
| Wk 1 | Tommy v Olivia | 50–50 |
| Wk 5 | Dane v Tommy | 51–49 |
| Wk 2 | Max v Olivia | 51–49 |
| Week | Game | Favorite wins |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | NICK v Tommy | 87% |
| Wk 6 | Abdur v Austin | 84% |
| Wk 12 | Abdur v NICK | 76% |
| Wk 5 | NICK v Abdur | 74% |
| Wk 10 | Olivia v NICK | 72% |
| Player | Pts/wk you lose |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson RB | 20.8 |
| Puka Nacua WR | 20.2 |
| Drake London WR | 16.4 |
| Josh Jacobs RB | 14.5 |
| Christian Watson WR | 11.9 |
| Tucker Kraft TE | 11.0 |
| Total | 94.8 |
| Wk | Dane | Abdur | NICK | Max | Olivia | Austin | Tyler | Tommy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | · | 26 | 29 | 14 | 19 | · | 9 | · |
| 6 | 14 | 49 | 23 | · | 40 | · | 34 | 74 |
| 7 | 67 | 39 | 11 | 27 | 25 | 32 | 36 | 8 |
| 8 | 24 | 37 | 54 | 9 | 21 | 34 | 39 | 6 |
| 9 | 10 | · | · | · | 12 | · | · | 11 |
| 10 | 58 | 15 | 14 | 46 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 40 |
| 11 | 8 | 34 | 95 | 69 | 32 | 68 | 18 | 20 |
| 12 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 13 | 26 | · | 10 | 35 | 12 | 48 | 30 | 14 |
| 14 | 15 | · | 9 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 45 |
| Total | 224 | 200 | 246 | 211 | 205 | 231 | 214 | 218 |
In Week 11 you own zero tight ends, and while receivers wash up on the wire all season long, startable tight ends don't. Jake Ferguson of Dallas plays Week 11 and is rostered in under half of leagues, so he's the claim, and he moonlights as Kraft insurance through the September snap count, one player doing two jobs. Claim him by Week 9 at the absolute latest, though there's no real reason to wait even that long.
Playing in Week 11 and worth owning: Alec Pierce (Indianapolis, though Austin just claimed him, so scratch that one), Wan'Dale Robinson (Tennessee, WR14 per game last year), Jalen Coker (Carolina, WR16 pace down the stretch), Michael Pittman Jr. (Pittsburgh). One warning from the research: Wan'Dale, Pittman, and Pollard all share Week 9 byes, and the Colts cluster rests Week 13, so be careful not to fix November by breaking a different month.
Bowers plays Week 11, and so do McBride and Loveland, because every tight end worth trading for has a bye somewhere else. Land any of them and the Week 11 tight end hole closes as a side effect, with Kraft demoted to the best insurance policy in the league. A September tight end trade is quietly worth more to you than its point value says.
The 33 percent win odds in the schedule section describe the version of the week where you already made both claims and filled every slot with a real player. Show up without a tight end and a third flex, and two slots score zero, which drops it to something like one-in-six. So the claims aren't a bonus on top of the plan, they're the plan itself.
Week 12 is Abdur at zero byes league-wide, the softest game you'll play all year. If anyone on your roster needs an extra week of rest, or a drop has to burn, Weeks 11 and 12 are the window: one game that's probably lost even if you play it perfectly, and one that's nearly unloseable right behind it.
The format: five teams in. Seeds 1, 2, and 3 rest in Week 15 while the 4 and 5 seeds play. Week 16 is the semifinals: the 1 seed against the Round 1 winner, and 2 against 3. Week 17 is the final. Byes are over by then, so every roster is whole.
| Five-team field (any seed order) | Chance |
|---|---|
| Austin · Dane · NICK · Tommy · Tyler | 10% |
| Austin · Dane · Max · NICK · Tommy | 8% |
| Austin · Dane · NICK · Olivia · Tyler | 8% |
| Austin · Dane · Max · NICK · Tyler | 8% |
| Austin · Dane · NICK · Olivia · Tommy | 8% |
| Austin · Dane · Max · NICK · Olivia | 6% |
| Final | Chance | Who wins it |
|---|---|---|
| Austin v NICK | 21% | NICK 58%, Austin 42% |
| Dane v NICK | 12% | NICK 63%, Dane 37% |
| Austin v Dane | 7% | Austin 56%, Dane 44% |
| NICK v Tommy | 7% | NICK 64%, Tommy 36% |
| NICK v Tyler | 7% | NICK 68%, Tyler 32% |
| NICK v Olivia | 5% | NICK 67%, Olivia 33% |
| Semifinal opponent | Chance (of all seasons) |
|---|---|
| Dane | 17% |
| Austin | 15% |
| Tommy | 13% |
| Tyler | 13% |
| Max | 11% |
| Olivia | 11% |
| Team | Champion | Runner-up | Third | Toilet king |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NICK | 37.5% | 21.9% | 21.1% | 0.8% |
| Austin | 22.2% | 21.5% | 19.7% | 2.9% |
| Dane | 13.3% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 6.9% |
| Tommy | 7.7% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 12.6% |
| Tyler | 7.0% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 12.9% |
| Olivia | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 16.4% |
| Max | 4.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 17.0% |
| Abdur | 1.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 30.6% |
The two bracket images you sent both use the 5 seed: the championship preview has 5 playing 4 in Week 15, and the Toilet Bowl preview also has the 5 seed in its opening round. Both cannot be right. Everything above assumes the championship version, where finishing fifth is a playoff spot. If it is actually a consolation spot, the difference between finishing 5th and 6th stops mattering and the fight for seeds 3 and 4 matters more. Worth a text to settle it.
Minnesota holds the second-easiest fantasy-playoff schedule in football, which is Kyler's. New Orleans holds the easiest full-season schedule by opponent win totals, and Shough closes with Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Atlanta in weeks 15 through 17. The Giants sit fifth-easiest for playoff quarterbacks, so Dart gets Cleveland, Detroit, and a Dallas defense that finished last in football against the pass. All three of your quarterbacks peak in the exact weeks your bracket runs.
The Rams rank third-easiest in playoff strength of schedule, with Dallas and Tampa in weeks 15 and 17 and shootout totals already being projected, and Atlanta closes with Washington, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans, one of the best late runs anywhere for pass catchers, which carries London and helps Bijan. The exception is McCaffrey: San Francisco's playoff slate, at the Chargers, at Kansas City, and then Philadelphia, ranks 32nd of 32 teams, so in the bracket he'll be your hardest start rather than your easiest, and it's better to plan around that now than to stare at it in Week 16.
Washington ranks 31st for the playoff weeks, which takes real air out of Jayden Daniels right when Dane needs him most. Seattle ranks 28th, which is Smith-Njigba, and Philadelphia's opponents rank 26th, which softens Tyler's Hurts while touching nothing of yours. Meanwhile, two December monsters live on rosters you might call: Detroit has the single best playoff schedule in the league, so Jahmyr Gibbs is worth even more than his season-long number says, and Brock Bowers' playoff opponents have all struggled against tight ends. Both of your top trade targets get better in exactly the weeks you'd be trading for.
Jake Ferguson, the same claim that fixes your Week 11, holds the best playoff schedule at his position, with three December games in domes with high projected totals, so one move covers November and upgrades December at the same time. On defense, nobody has published a playoff-weeks stream yet, but the raw schedule points at Arizona, who close with the Jets, the Saints, and the Raiders, and I'll flag it again when it's close enough to act on.
| Your player | Weeks 15–17 | Published playoff SOS |
|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray MIN | vs DET, vs WAS, @ NYJ | 2nd easiest in the NFL |
| Tyler Shough NO | @ TB, vs ARI, @ ATL | Elite; easiest full-season slate |
| Jaxson Dart NYG | vs CLE, @ DET, @ DAL | 5th easiest for QBs |
| Puka Nacua LAR | vs DAL, @ SEA, @ TB | 3rd easiest overall |
| Bijan + London ATL | @ WAS, vs TB, vs NO | Rated among the best for pass catchers |
| Rashee Rice KC | vs NE, vs SF, @ LAC | Mildly positive (8th) |
| Tucker Kraft GB | vs MIA, @ CHI, vs HOU | Middling (22nd) |
| Christian McCaffrey SF | @ LAC, @ KC, vs PHI | Dead last, 32nd of 32 |
| Owner | Player | December outlook | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dane | Jayden Daniels WAS | 31st of 32 | Half his quarterback edge softens in exactly the wrong weeks. |
| Austin | Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA | 28th | His best skill player draws Philadelphia and the Rams in the bracket. |
| Austin | Brock Bowers LV | Playoff opponents all struggled against TEs | One more reason to trade for him now rather than admire him in December. |
| Abdur | Jahmyr Gibbs DET | Best playoff schedule in football | The Gibbs trade gets better in December, which is when you would need him. |
| Tyler | Lamar Jackson BAL | 5th easiest | If Tyler sneaks into the bracket, his quarterbacks travel well. |
Playoff strength-of-schedule is built from last season's defensive rankings, and defenses change more year to year than any other unit. Treat these as leans, not locks: a 60-40 tilt in your favor across three weeks, not a guarantee. The reason it is still worth planning around is that every published model agrees on the direction for your particular players, and disagreement is the usual state of these things.
Three numbers per team. Injury tax: how many points a week a team should expect to lose to injuries across the season, given each player's age, history, and current news. Star hit: how much the weekly lineup drops if the team's single most important player disappears. Exposure rate: injury tax divided by how good the team actually is, which tells you who is carrying the most risk relative to what they have to lose.
| Team | Injury tax (pts/wk) | Star hit | Exposure rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| NICK | 7.5 | Bijan Robinson −7.2 | 16% |
| Austin | 5.2 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba −7.8 | 14% |
| Olivia | 4.0 | Tyler Warren −9.7 | 12% |
| Tyler | 3.8 | Lamar Jackson −8.5 | 13% |
| Abdur | 3.6 | Jahmyr Gibbs −11.9 | 18% |
| Tommy | 3.5 | Ja'Marr Chase −8.8 | 12% |
| Dane | 3.3 | Nico Collins −4.9 | 11% |
| Max | 2.7 | Colston Loveland −5.3 | 11% |
Your injury tax is the highest in the league at 7.5 points a week, and that is mostly a compliment: you own the most points that can go missing. A replacement-level team has almost no injury tax because it has nothing to lose.
The fairer measure is the exposure rate, and yours is 16 percent, second-highest behind Abdur. That is the price of a stars-first roster: you win by more when healthy, and you lose more than anyone when the wrong player goes down.
What keeps it manageable is the shape of the risk. Your quarterback room is three players within 1.5 points of each other, so a quarterback injury costs you almost nothing. All of your real exposure is concentrated in four names: Nacua, Bijan, McCaffrey, and Rice. Two of those four (Bijan, and Nacua once the hip clears) are among the safest players in football. So your risk is high in total but narrow in source, which is exactly the kind you can watch.
Title odds fall from about 42% to the mid 30s. The only single injury in the league that changes who the favorite is.
Title odds fall about 6 points. Painful, survivable; your flex depth absorbs part of it.
His weekly lineup drops 7.8, the biggest star hit among your rivals. His tight end depth cushions it less than you would think, because Bowers is irreplaceable at his position too.
An 8.8-point weekly hit, and his backfield is already injured. This is why the sims like him less than his talent suggests.
An 11.9-point hit, the largest in the league, on the thinnest roster. His season rides on one hamstring, which is one more argument for offering him real value for Gibbs now.
If you are wrong about both calls, Jacobs banned six games and Nacua missing the first three weeks, your expected record drops from 9.3 wins to 9.1 and your 1 seed odds from 49 to 46 percent. Your title odds barely move. Even the double bad outcome is a bruise, not a break, so building around your read costs you almost nothing if you turn out to be wrong.
Before the ACL tear last November he was averaging 14.7 PPR points a game, tied for second among all tight ends with Bowers and Kittle. His 2.33 yards per route run sat in the 99th percentile, and his 10.8 yards after catch per reception is the highest PFF has ever charted at the position, in twenty years of charting it. Green Bay then let Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks both walk without replacing either one, so the target competition is thinner than it was when he put up those numbers. PFF's published ceiling is a top-three finish, and in a league where tight end falls off a cliff after Bowers and McBride, a top-three tight end is worth about 5 points a week over anything else you could start.
The tear was ten months before Week 1. Green Bay has said, and Kraft has confirmed, that his snap count will be managed, possibly into midseason, and the medical timelines put him near 90 percent around Week 8. His own teammate is the comparable, since Christian Watson played 56 percent of snaps in his first game back and didn't clear 80 until his third. On top of that, Kraft's bye is Week 11, which lands in the middle of your worst week, and Green Bay's playoff schedule ranks 22nd, so he gets none of the December tailwind your quarterbacks get.
This report's baseline treats him as an 11-point player for the season, a slow start blended with a strong finish. Lift the restriction and restore his 2025 rate, and your title odds climb from 41.6 to 45.2 percent while your weekly average gains 3.2 points. No other player on your roster moves your season that much by himself, and neither does any trade in the trade section.
In September, start him, expect 7 to 9 points, and don't judge him, because somebody will offer you a bench player after a 4-point week and the answer is no. October is the read window: if his snaps cross 80 percent, you own a top-three tight end and every tight end trade in this report becomes optional. In November, if the ramp never came, Ferguson covers Week 11 and you revisit the Bowers offer with Kraft as a real sweetener instead of a throw-in. The only way to lose this bet is to sell it in September at September's price.
| When | Expected usage | Realistic pts | What to do |
|---|---|---|---|
| September | 50–70% of snaps, managed reps | 7–9 pts/wk | Start him anyway; the wire alternative is barely better and owns none of the upside. |
| October | Ramp toward full usage | 10–13 | The read window. Watch the snap counts, not the box scores. |
| Week 11 | Green Bay bye | 0 | Ferguson covers it, already planned for. |
| Weeks 12–14 | Full usage if the knee held | 12–15 | If he is here, you own a top-three tight end for the stretch run. |
| Weeks 15–17 | The bracket: MIA, @CHI, HOU | 11–14 | Middling matchups, elite player. This is what you held him for. |
There is nothing to watch here, which makes him the easiest note in this report.
He signed the biggest running back contract in football in the middle of camp, hasn't had an injury designation since 2023, and led the league in scrimmage yards last year. The only wrinkle anyone can find is that Stefanski likes to feed a second back a few carries and Brian Robinson Jr. is standing there, but Atlanta also let Allgeier walk, which sends the goal-line work Bijan lost last year back to him. Those two things roughly cancel out, so pencil in a season that looks like last season.
The one guy whose hip you should be checking every morning.
He caught 129 passes last year, the most in the NFL, and was the WR1 per game in fantasy. Then came the psoas strain on August 11, and he hasn't practiced with the team since, just side work as of the 24th. You said he plays Week 1 and the model believes you, and the Rams don't kick off until September 10 in Australia, so there's some slack in the calendar. But every projection in this report leans on him harder than on anyone else, and if the hip turns into weeks instead of days, your title odds drop from 42 into the mid 30s, and there's no waiver move that gets that back.
The best per-game back alive, who is also 30 years old with 413 touches on the odometer.
The 'tightness' that cost him three weeks of camp is the same word the 49ers used in 2024, right before he missed nine weeks. Maybe it's nothing this time, and Shanahan says he'd play if it were a real game. But the depth chart behind him is in worse shape than he is: Guerendo has a torn pec and Jordan James has broken ribs, so there's no handcuff to stash. When he plays you're starting a 20-point back, and when he doesn't you're starting Tuten, which is about as stark as a swing gets on one roster spot.
The Giants rebuilt an entire franchise around your eighth-round pick.
There's a new coach in Harbaugh, ten new starters, and four veteran receivers signed to catch his passes. He ran for nine touchdowns as a rookie, the third most ever for a rookie quarterback, and the rushing is what makes him a fantasy starter. It's also how he got concussed twice last year, plus another scare in the preseason opener, always on scrambles. So the realistic version of his season is that he scores like a top-twelve quarterback and misses a week or two doing it, which is exactly the kind of absence your bench was built to absorb.
Paid like a WR1, plays like a WR1, and nobody can tell him who his quarterback is.
Tua and Penix were still splitting first-team reps on August 24, and that really is the whole note. He was the WR6 per game before his knee gave out last November, and the targets are guaranteed no matter who starts; what each target is worth depends on an announcement Atlanta keeps not making. Bijan barely cares who hands him the ball, but London cares a lot who throws it to him.
Ignore the suspension headlines, because that sentence has already been served.
The six-game ban happened in 2025. The league's second investigation closed in April with no punishment, and the 30 days in jail this May was a probation matter from the old case; he was out June 16 and has been in full team drills since early August as Kansas City's top receiver. The thing that actually belongs in your planning is durability, because he hasn't finished a season since 2023. Budget for 13 games instead of 17, and expect a top-ten receiver in the 13 he plays.
The arrest is real, the investigation is open, and you've decided he plays. Fine.
The facts: a May arrest, no charges filed, a DA who says the case is open, and Schefter reporting a ban is 'still on the table,' with six games as the baseline for this category. The model now runs your read, a 10 percent chance of a suspension and nothing more. And here's the part that should lower your blood pressure either way: even the full six-game version costs your lineup about a point and a half a week, because McMillan just slides into the flex. The ninth-best starter on a great roster is a survivable place to take a hit.
A good player stuck in a Bryce Young offense.
A quarter of Carolina's targets went to him as a rookie, which is real alpha usage, right up until you remember that Young threw for under 200 yards twelve different times and the new play-caller has never called plays before. So McMillan's job on your roster is first receiver off the bench, and his second job is trade bait, because rival managers see the target share without seeing the offense wrapped around it.
You drafted him 67th, and then Philadelphia traded A.J. Brown and made him the whole show.
In his three career games without Brown, a third of the targets went to Smith. His only new competition, rookie Makai Lemon, has spent all of camp on a training table with a hamstring, and Smith opens with the easiest three-game stretch of any receiver in the league. Every draft has one pick that the news decides to bless afterward, and this was yours.
Before the knee he was scoring 14.7 a game, second among all tight ends, tied with Bowers.
His after-catch numbers were the best PFF has recorded at the position in twenty years of charting, and Green Bay let Doubs and Wicks leave without replacing them, so the targets are there. What stands between him and that ceiling is a snap count: the team plans to manage him, maybe into midseason, and Kraft has said as much himself. Watson's comeback is the template, 56 percent of snaps in his first game back and 82 by the third, so September will look mediocre and mean nothing. The projections here carry him at 11 a game, and the version where the restriction lifts early is worth about four points of title odds all by itself, the biggest single-player swing on your roster. Somebody is going to offer you a bench player for him after a 4-point week in September, and you shouldn't take that call seriously. The full case has its own section later on.
The market is still charging an injury discount on a knee that healed a year ago.
The tear was January 2025, and he was back by October putting up 13 a game the rest of the way. Green Bay watched all of that and paid him $111 million in June, with no PUP, no restrictions, and a full camp. He's your fifth receiver, which says more about your roster than about him, and it makes him a trade chip who sells for more than he'd ever score sitting on your bench.
The market drafted a starter, and Jacksonville's depth chart printed a committee.
Coen used the word himself in mid-August, committee, him and Chris Rodriguez Jr., then praised Tuten in the same breath and predicted a big year, so nobody really knows what this backfield is, including the coach. Call it 50 to 60 percent of the work. At pick 83 that's still a fine price, as long as you stop counting him as the RB3 the draft slot implied.
Six straight seasons as a fantasy starter, then one broken foot, then Arizona just... cut him.
Minnesota signed him for a year, watched J.J. McCarthy fall apart in camp, and named Kyler the starter earlier than anyone expected, which means he now throws to Justin Jefferson. The December angle is the good part: Minnesota's playoff-weeks schedule is the second easiest in the entire league, so the quarterback you took at the tail of the run might be your best one in the exact three weeks the season gets decided.
You got him at pick 126, the market said 76, and his starting job was announced back in January.
From Week 12 on last season he was the QB6 per game, with six straight games over 17 points, and New Orleans spent the offseason adding Etienne and a first-round receiver around him. The Saints also drew the easiest schedule in football by last year's opponent win totals. On your roster he's a bench player, but everywhere else in this league he'd be a starting quarterback, and that mismatch is the engine of every trade offer in this report.
The breakout thesis lasted exactly as long as it took Indy to sign Keenan Allen.
Pittman's targets were supposed to fall to Downs, but Allen plays the same slot Downs plays, and there isn't much more to it than that. He holds your last bench spot until a waiver claim needs it, and he's the drop when it does.
Three of the eight best skill players in the league live here, and the quarterbacks cost picks 62, 99, and 126 while giving back almost exactly what the waiver wire would, which was the plan. The six bench players don't start, but all six of them can be traded. Two things can wreck it: the Week 11 bye that benches six starters at once, and Nacua's hip. What actually separates this roster from Austin's isn't talent at the top, it's where the points come from. His quarterback surplus could be rebuilt off waivers in a weekend, and nobody on the wire replaces Nacua.
He acquired three starting quarterbacks at picks 27, 54, and 59, took Bowers, the best tight end alive, at 22, and finished with the second-best draft value in the league. He built the mirror image of your roster and paid less for it. The rot is at the edges: Stafford is 38 with a disk injection and no camp practices, Henry is 32, Olave is on the shelf arguing about money, and Henderson splits carries. It's December rot specifically, too, since Smith-Njigba's playoff schedule ranks 28th. The sims make Nick against Austin the most likely final, one season in five, and give him 42 percent of it, so the ranking is earned.
His two quarterbacks are worth eight points a week over the wire, more than five times your quarterback surplus, and that pair alone keeps his floor high enough to hang around all season. Hanging around is dangerous in a league where two December coin flips decide everything. Everything else on the roster is fine and only fine: McBride's quarterback went from Kyler Murray to Jacoby Brissett, which quietly ruins a top-three tight end, and his last pick, Tyson, pulled a hamstring within two weeks and is gone until November. Then there's the December problem. Washington's playoff schedule ranks 31st of 32, so half his engine shuts off in the exact weeks he'd need it.
He owns both ends of Burrow throwing to Chase, and he got Nix at pick 73, twenty points a game and the best quarterback value in the whole draft. When it clicks, nobody in this league matches his ceiling in a single week, not you and not Austin. The problem is the present tense: both of his starting running backs are hurt with no timelines, Jeanty's knee on August 23 and Love's high ankle sprain, and the schedule already robbed him once, because his Week 6 bye wipes out Burrow, Chase, Jefferson, and Jameson Williams all at once, the worst single-week bye hit in the league, in the week he plays you. I've ranked him above Tyler on ceiling; the sims disagree by a decimal, and I'm comfortable overruling them.
He owns the second-best quarterback pair in the league, and after Pickens the receivers just stop. There are three tight ends on the roster for one slot, two of them hurt or old, and Hubbard lost his job to a hamstring while Jonathon Brooks takes his reps. The quarterbacks keep every week within reach, which is real and is why the sims give him a playoff spot more often than not. But somewhere in December you need a week that scares people, and nothing after his first two picks provides one.
Maye, St. Brown, and Lamb are a real contender's spine. Wrapped around it: Mahomes eight months off ACL surgery, Nabers still not committing to Week 1, and Judkins missing practice for reasons Cleveland won't name. If they're all healthy she finishes top three, and if they're not she's the Toilet Bowl favorite, and both versions are live. No other team in this league can lose to anyone and beat anyone the way she can, and the week her stars all show up at once is the most dangerous single week any of your opponents can produce.
He has two decent quarterbacks, the third-best tight end, A.J. Brown in a better situation than the one he left, and no holes anywhere. He also has no stars anywhere, and his best player would be fifth-best on your roster. In this format the wire hands out depth for free, so a roster made entirely of depth is a roster made of things nobody needed to draft. His one path out is Loveland turning into a star by November, which could happen, but it's also his only plan.
Gibbs and Barkley are real, and the receiver room, collectively, projects below the waiver wire, which no other team in the league manages. He paid full sticker for Kelce, Kittle, Deebo, and Diggs, and got age and injuries for it, and he opens at 31 percent to be crowned King of the Toilet. You already know all this. What it means for you is simpler: he owns exactly one thing a contender wants, he'll want names back for it, and his November desperation has a price you should be negotiating in September.
You called the last round of offers too generous to you, and you were right: they priced players by projection in a league that prices them by name. So they've been rebuilt. Each target gets an opening offer, the version that actually gets signed, and a walk-away line, and one theme runs through all of it: Rashee Rice is your currency. The league sees a top-15 name and an elite scorer, you see your fourth receiver and a 13-game season, and the space between those two views is exactly what you should be spending.
Opening Tyler Shough + Tetairoa McMillan
+3.5 for you. He declines in about four seconds, but send it anyway, because anchors are free.
Realistic Rashee Rice + Tyler Shough for Bowers
+1.3 for you, +1.3 for him, the rare offer that's simply true for both sides. He needs a receiver (his room thins out fast behind JSN, and Olave's hurt), he has a tight end to spare, and Rice is a name he can defend to himself. You get the best tight end in football, Week 11 solved, and Kraft riding behind Bowers as a free lottery ticket.
Walk-away No London, no Nacua, no Bijan, no McCaffrey
No tight end is worth a top-four skill player, and if he pushes there, the answer is Ferguson off waivers and nothing lost.
Opening Josh Jacobs + Tyler Shough + Tetairoa McMillan
+6.9 for you. That's three starters for his roster, and it's still probably not famous enough for him.
Realistic Rashee Rice + Josh Jacobs + Tyler Shough
+4.7 for you and roughly even for him, and every piece is a name. A last-place roster gets a headline receiver, a starting back, and a starting quarterback, while you get Bijan, Gibbs, and McCaffrey in the same lineup, and Gibbs owns the best playoff schedule in football thanks to Detroit's December draw. If he signs it, start planning the parade route.
Walk-away Drake London, and only with Murray or Jacobs coming off your roster too
London-plus still profits you 3.6 a week, but not an inch past that.
Opening Tyler Shough + Tetairoa McMillan
+3.9 for you, and he'll likely pass.
Realistic Rashee Rice + Bhayshul Tuten
+1.7 for you and near flat for him. His tight end just traded Kyler Murray for Jacoby Brissett, so Dane may quietly want out of McBride at the top of the market, and it's the same Week 11 fix as Bowers.
Walk-away DeVonta Smith stays
Smith after the A.J. Brown trade is worth more than any tight end upgrade on the board.
A tight end trade and the Kraft ceiling bet are not actually in conflict. If you land Bowers or McBride, Kraft becomes your bench tight end through his September snap ramp, and by midseason you either own the two best tight ends in your league or you flip whichever one is hotter to a desperate team in November. The only version that is a mistake is selling Kraft cheap in September while his snap count makes him look ordinary. Hold him through October minimum.
Do not trade for a quarterback, and do not send a top-four skill player away for anything. Your quarterback room is one point a week off the wire's best, and every deal above survives that fact. And the moment any of Bijan, Nacua, McCaffrey, or a healthy Rice leaves your roster, you stop being a different tier from Austin.
The 18th spot, today. He covers Week 11, insures Kraft, and, per the December research, owns the best tight end playoff schedule in football with three December domes. No other free agent on this wire does three jobs at once.
A confirmed starter who played at a QB1 level for ten weeks last year, sitting on the wire of a superflex league, and he solves the Week 8 double-bye by himself. Claim him Week 7. If someone beats you to him, Darnold profiles the same, though he's useless in Week 11 with Seattle's bye.
Your instinct, demoted one tier by the facts. He's a tandem back now and the lead back the day Hubbard's hamstring barks again, and he plays Week 11. He's a contingency, and contingencies are what bench spot six is for.
The best pure production available: WR16 pace late last year, a confirmed starter, and he plays Week 11.
One J.K. Dobbins injury from a top-25 role, and Dobbins has never once finished a season. Olivia claimed him this week, so he's gone, but it's noted here so you know what she's doing.
He took the first-team reps the day Jeanty went down and led rookies in yards after contact this preseason. Better near-term odds than the Coleman play, with a lower ceiling.
Now: claim Ferguson into the open spot.
Week 7: drop Josh Downs for Daniel Jones ahead of your Week 8 quarterback bye crunch.
Week 9: if Jones has held the job well, keep him through 11; otherwise swap that spot to a second Week 11 receiver (Coker or Pierce).
Week 11 morning: your lineup should already be legal without any panic moves. That is the whole point of doing this early.
Week 12 on: the spot becomes a rotating stash: Coleman, Washington, or whichever contingent back is one injury from a starting job in your playoff weeks.
Verified against 2026 rosters and byes. Players your league has already drafted are excluded.
Your Week 11 tight end, your Kraft insurance, and the owner of the best tight-end playoff schedule in football with three December domes, so one claim pays off in September, November, and December.
A confirmed starter who played at a QB1 level for ten weeks last year before the Achilles, and he's free, solving your Week 8 double-bye by himself. In superflex there's no more valuable name on any wire.
The likely Week 1 starter while Penix finishes rehab. If Atlanta names him, he's a floor start attached to your own Bijan and London, and he's the answer if you ever lose a quarterback for real.
A tandem back today and the lead back the day Hubbard's hamstring acts up again, and he plays Week 11. Your draft-day instinct on the name was right, just one tier early on the role.
He produced at a WR16 pace late last season, holds a confirmed starting job, and is usable in Week 11, with the most actual production of anyone sitting on the wire.
Watson starts Week 1, but the projection community has Sanders making roughly ten starts to Watson's seven, which makes him a starting quarterback for most of the fantasy season, sitting free until the switch happens.
One Kyler benching or injury from inheriting the second-easiest playoff schedule in football, so file it away for November even if you never roster him.
He becomes a top-25 back the day J.K. Dobbins gets hurt, and Dobbins has never finished a season. Olivia claimed him this week, though, so he's off the menu unless she cuts him.
He took the first-team reps the day Jeanty went down and ran for 119 preseason yards, with better immediate odds than Coleman and a lower ceiling.
Already splitting carries with Kyren Williams in a confirmed committee, and PFF rates him a top-three handcuff.
The Achane handcuff in an offense promising him 40-plus touches. Miami's offense is bad, but volume is volume.
A big-play profile, back from ankle rehab for the opener, who would have been usable in Week 11. Austin claimed him this week, which stings, because he was on this exact list for that exact reason.
He was the WR14 per game last year and is back with his old coordinator, and his Week 9 bye means he clears Week 11 clean.
A rookie promoted to the first team with a jump-ball profile and a real path to leading the Browns in targets, and he pairs with a Sanders stash if you ever make one.
Camp buzz with Lamar and a red-zone role in a new scheme, and that's the whole file so far.
If the comeback from the catastrophic 2024 injury holds, that's proven touchdown history for free, though it's a big if.
The targets project fine, but the schedule is one of the hardest in football for receivers, and his Week 9 bye is shared with three other wire names.
The published weeks 1-3 streams: the Chargers (vs Brissett, vs Raiders), Green Bay against Geno Smith and his league-leading interceptions in Week 2, and Chicago against Carolina and then a Kyler still learning a new offense. Your own unit is fine; these are the pivots for the bad matchup weeks.
Week 11 tight end plus Kraft insurance. The one move with no downside.
The one trade that is good for both sides. If it lands, Week 11 shrinks and your tight end slot becomes the best in the league.
Rice, Jacobs, and Shough for Gibbs is a fair offer that fixes three of his holes. Even a no plants the seed for his November fire sale.
The Rams' late opener buys time. He is the one player whose status changes your season.
Moves London most, Bijan a little.
Plan on 60 to 70 percent usage through September. Judge him in October, not Week 2.
Dart and Shough share the Week 8 bye. Jones is a free 17-point starter that week.
Ferguson plus one receiver on the roster, lineup legal on paper before anyone else starts shopping.
Aubrey rests on Dallas's bye in the last regular-season week, likely with the 1 seed on the line against Austin.
There are sixteen starting quarterback jobs in this league and thirty-two starting quarterbacks in the NFL, so the best free one on your wire scores about 17 a week. Your three quarterbacks, drafted with picks 62, 99, and 126, add 1.4 points over that free level combined, while Dane's pair adds 7.8 and cost him picks 1 and 16. That's sixty draft slots for six points a week, the trade he made and you didn't, and the 16-point weekly gap between your rosters is mostly made of it.
Twelve of your eighteen start, and none of the other six ever crack the lineup. In a twelve-team league those six would be survival, but here the wire is the survival and the bench is inventory. Trading a bench player costs you nothing that shows up on a scoreboard, and every deal in the trade section is built on that arithmetic.
Best kicker to twelfth-best kicker is 1.7 points a week, and nobody can predict which is which anyway. Aubrey at pick 115 had a 98 percent chance of surviving to 126, so the pick didn't cost points so much as it cost one more Watson-or-Tuten-shaped lottery ticket from the round where you were finding them.
A lineup slot that accepts any position, including quarterback. Quarterbacks score the most, so in practice it's a second quarterback slot, and it doubles demand for the position.
What the best freely available player at a position scores. In this league that's a 16.9-point quarterback, an 11.4-point receiver, a 10.6-point back, and a 9.2-point tight end, and every value number in this report is measured against these.
A player's points per week minus replacement level at his slot. It lets you compare players across positions on one scale, and it's why a 17-point quarterback (worth +0.1) can matter less than a 14-point receiver (worth +2.8).
The blend of fifteen public projection sources described in the methods note, quoted as PPR points per game.
Where the fantasy-playing public actually drafts a player, from FantasyFootballCalculator, Sleeper, and Underdog data. 'Value versus market' compares where you picked someone to where the market says he goes.
The points per week a roster should expect to lose to injuries across a season, from simulating each player's age, position base rates, and current news 400 times.
Seeds 1 through 3 skip the Week 15 playoff round, and the 1 seed also draws the weakest possible semifinal opponent. It's worth about 16 points of title probability versus entering as the 4 or 5 seed.
Filling a lineup hole for one week with the best waiver player available, then dropping him. It's standard for defenses and kickers, and in this league it works at quarterback too.
| Player | Pos | PPG | Bye |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | RB | 20.8 | 11 |
| Puka Nacua | WR | 20.2 | 11 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 19.2 | 8 |
| Jaxson Dart | QB | 18.1 | 8 |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 17.1 | 6 |
| Tyler Shough | QB | 16.6 | 8 |
| Drake London | WR | 16.4 | 11 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 15.8 | 5 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | 14.5 | 11 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | 14.2 | 10 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 13.6 | 5 |
| Christian Watson | WR | 11.9 | 11 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 11.4 | 7 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | 11.0 | 11 |
| Josh Downs | WR | 10.3 | 13 |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | 9.0 | 14 |
| Vikings DST | DST | 6.3 | 6 |
| Player | Pos | PPG | Bye |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | 19.2 | 7 |
| Brock Purdy | QB | 19.2 | 8 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 18.8 | 11 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 18.6 | 11 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 17.9 | 13 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 15.9 | 13 |
| Chris Olave | WR | 15.3 | 8 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | 14.5 | 13 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | 12.8 | 7 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | 11.8 | 10 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | 11.4 | 11 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 11.0 | 14 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 10.6 | 11 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 9.8 | 10 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 8.3 | 11 |
| Broncos DST | DST | 8.0 | 10 |
| Player | Pos | PPG | Bye |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB | 22.3 | 7 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 19.3 | 7 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | 18.3 | 10 |
| Nico Collins | WR | 15.4 | 8 |
| Trey McBride | TE | 14.9 | 14 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 14.1 | 7 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | 13.7 | 6 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 13.7 | 13 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 13.1 | 10 |
| Breece Hall | RB | 12.7 | 13 |
| DJ Moore | WR | 11.4 | 7 |
| Carnell Tate | WR | 10.5 | 9 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | 10.2 | 10 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | 10.1 | 10 |
| Jordyn Tyson | WR | 9.1 | 8 |
| Harrison Mevis | K | 8.3 | 11 |
| Eagles DST | DST | 6.5 | 10 |
| Player | Pos | PPG | Bye |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 19.5 | 6 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | 19.3 | 6 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 19.3 | 14 |
| Bo Nix | QB | 18.4 | 10 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | 15.4 | 6 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | 13.8 | 13 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB | 13.1 | 14 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 12.6 | 6 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | 12.4 | 14 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 11.5 | 11 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | 11.2 | 9 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | 10.7 | 10 |
| RJ Harvey | RB | 10.5 | 10 |
| Jason Myers | K | 9.0 | 11 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 8.5 | 7 |
| Lions DST | DST | 7.0 | 6 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | 5.8 | 8 |
| Player | Pos | PPG | Bye |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 20.2 | 13 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | 19.6 | 10 |
| De'Von Achane | RB | 17.0 | 6 |
| George Pickens | WR | 15.9 | 14 |
| James Cook | RB | 15.5 | 7 |
| Mike Evans | WR | 13.1 | 8 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | 13.0 | 8 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | 13.0 | 8 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | 12.1 | 10 |
| Ty Simpson | QB | 11.7 | 11 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 11.7 | 7 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | 11.2 | 6 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | 10.0 | 13 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 9.2 | 5 |
| Rams DST | DST | 6.8 | 11 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | 6.0 | 6 |
| Player | Pos | PPG | Bye |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | QB | 19.7 | 11 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 19.0 | 5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 18.0 | 6 |
| Chase Brown | RB | 16.4 | 6 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | 16.1 | 14 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | 14.0 | 8 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 12.8 | 10 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | 12.8 | 10 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | 12.0 | 11 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | 11.9 | 13 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | 11.7 | 9 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | 10.5 | 7 |
| Cameron Dicker | K | 8.6 | 7 |
| Texans DST | DST | 7.4 | 8 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 5.9 | 7 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 5.6 | 6 |
| Eli Stowers | TE | 2.2 | 10 |
| Player | Pos | PPG | Bye |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | 19.5 | 10 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | 19.0 | 7 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | 15.2 | 11 |
| Fernando Mendoza | QB | 14.8 | 13 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | 14.4 | 5 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | 14.3 | 13 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | 13.6 | 10 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | 13.3 | 11 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | 13.0 | 10 |
| Davante Adams | WR | 12.0 | 11 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | 11.4 | 14 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 10.6 | 11 |
| Jadarian Price | RB | 9.9 | 11 |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 8.8 | 8 |
| Blake Corum | RB | 7.7 | 11 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 7.7 | 7 |
| Ravens DST | DST | 5.8 | 13 |
| Player | Pos | PPG | Bye |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 21.4 | 6 |
| Jared Goff | QB | 18.7 | 6 |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.5 | 11 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 15.1 | 10 |
| Bryce Young | QB | 15.1 | 5 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | 13.5 | 7 |
| David Montgomery | RB | 11.9 | 8 |
| George Kittle | TE | 10.9 | 8 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | 10.8 | 5 |
| Parker Washington | WR | 9.8 | 7 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 9.7 | 7 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 9.5 | 8 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 8.6 | 11 |
| Jake Bates | K | 8.5 | 6 |
| Seahawks DST | DST | 7.7 | 11 |
| Brenton Strange | TE | 6.4 | 7 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | 5.1 | 8 |
| Wk | Game | Favorite | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NICK v Max | NICK | 71% |
| 1 | Austin v Tyler | Austin | 59% |
| 1 | Tommy v Olivia | Tommy | 50% |
| 1 | Abdur v Dane | Dane | 66% |
| 2 | NICK v Tyler | NICK | 68% |
| 2 | Max v Olivia | Max | 51% |
| 2 | Austin v Dane | Austin | 53% |
| 2 | Tommy v Abdur | Tommy | 61% |
| 3 | NICK v Olivia | NICK | 67% |
| 3 | Tyler v Dane | Dane | 54% |
| 3 | Max v Abdur | Max | 62% |
| 3 | Austin v Tommy | Austin | 59% |
| 4 | NICK v Dane | NICK | 65% |
| 4 | Olivia v Abdur | Olivia | 62% |
| 4 | Tyler v Tommy | Tommy | 51% |
| 4 | Max v Austin | Austin | 64% |
| 5 | NICK v Abdur | NICK | 74% |
| 5 | Dane v Tommy | Dane | 51% |
| 5 | Olivia v Austin | Austin | 71% |
| 5 | Tyler v Max | Tyler | 58% |
| 6 | NICK v Tommy | NICK | 87% |
| 6 | Abdur v Austin | Austin | 84% |
| 6 | Dane v Max | Dane | 50% |
| 6 | Olivia v Tyler | Tyler | 59% |
| 7 | NICK v Austin | NICK | 64% |
| 7 | Tommy v Max | Tommy | 61% |
| 7 | Abdur v Tyler | Tyler | 60% |
| 7 | Dane v Olivia | Olivia | 62% |
| 8 | Max v NICK | NICK | 53% |
| 8 | Tyler v Austin | Austin | 64% |
| 8 | Olivia v Tommy | Tommy | 60% |
| 8 | Dane v Abdur | Dane | 66% |
| 9 | Tyler v NICK | NICK | 67% |
| 9 | Olivia v Max | Max | 53% |
| 9 | Dane v Austin | Austin | 58% |
| 9 | Abdur v Tommy | Tommy | 57% |
| 10 | Olivia v NICK | NICK | 72% |
| 10 | Dane v Tyler | Dane | 55% |
| 10 | Abdur v Max | Abdur | 56% |
| 10 | Tommy v Austin | Austin | 63% |
| 11 | Dane v NICK | Dane | 67% |
| 11 | Abdur v Olivia | Olivia | 52% |
| 11 | Tommy v Tyler | Tyler | 52% |
| 11 | Austin v Max | Austin | 61% |
| 12 | Abdur v NICK | NICK | 76% |
| 12 | Tommy v Dane | Dane | 55% |
| 12 | Austin v Olivia | Austin | 61% |
| 12 | Max v Tyler | Tyler | 54% |
| 13 | Tommy v NICK | NICK | 69% |
| 13 | Austin v Abdur | Abdur | 50% |
| 13 | Max v Dane | Dane | 57% |
| 13 | Tyler v Olivia | Olivia | 54% |
| 14 | Austin v NICK | NICK | 61% |
| 14 | Max v Tommy | Max | 57% |
| 14 | Tyler v Abdur | Tyler | 53% |
| 14 | Olivia v Dane | Dane | 60% |
Bijan Robinson RB · Puka Nacua WR · Christian McCaffrey RB · Drake London WR · Rashee Rice WR · Josh Jacobs RB · Tetairoa McMillan WR · Jaxson Dart QB · DeVonta Smith WR · Tucker Kraft TE · Bhayshul Tuten RB · Christian Watson WR · Kyler Murray QB · Josh Downs WR · Brandon Aubrey K · Tyler Shough QB · Vikings DST DST
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · Jonathan Taylor RB · Brock Bowers TE · Trevor Lawrence QB · Derrick Henry RB · Chris Olave WR · Brock Purdy QB · Matthew Stafford QB · Terry McLaurin WR · Kyle Pitts TE · TreVeyon Henderson RB · Courtland Sutton WR · Broncos DST DST · Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · J.K. Dobbins RB · Hunter Henry TE
Josh Allen QB · Jayden Daniels QB · Trey McBride TE · Nico Collins WR · Omarion Hampton RB · Breece Hall RB · Tee Higgins WR · Garrett Wilson WR · D'Andre Swift RB · Carnell Tate WR · DJ Moore WR · Dallas Goedert TE · Eagles DST DST · Chris Godwin WR · Baker Mayfield QB · Harrison Mevis K · Jordyn Tyson WR
Joe Burrow QB · Ja'Marr Chase WR · Justin Jefferson WR · Ashton Jeanty RB · Jeremiyah Love RB · Dak Prescott QB · Jameson Williams WR · Javonte Williams RB · Harold Fannin Jr. TE · Bo Nix QB · Luther Burden III WR · DK Metcalf WR · RJ Harvey RB · Lions DST DST · Isaiah Likely TE · Jason Myers K · Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
Lamar Jackson QB · Jalen Hurts QB · James Cook RB · De'Von Achane RB · George Pickens WR · Sam LaPorta TE · Mike Evans WR · Cam Skattebo RB · Travis Etienne Jr. RB · Rome Odunze WR · Rams DST DST · Mark Andrews TE · Ty Simpson QB · Brian Thomas Jr. WR · Chuba Hubbard RB · T.J. Hockenson TE
Drake Maye QB · Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · CeeDee Lamb WR · Patrick Mahomes QB · Chase Brown RB · Malik Nabers WR · Tyler Warren TE · Bucky Irving RB · Jaylen Waddle WR · Quinshon Judkins RB · Jaylen Warren RB · Texans DST DST · Keon Coleman WR · Eli Stowers TE · Cameron Dicker K · Jakobi Meyers WR · Isaac TeSlaa WR
Caleb Williams QB · Justin Herbert QB · Kenneth Walker III RB · A.J. Brown WR · Colston Loveland TE · Fernando Mendoza QB · Zay Flowers WR · Kyren Williams RB · Emeka Egbuka WR · Davante Adams WR · Jadarian Price RB · Dalton Kincaid TE · Ravens DST DST · Rhamondre Stevenson RB · Michael Wilson WR · Ka'imi Fairbairn K · Blake Corum RB
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · Jared Goff QB · Saquon Barkley RB · Jordan Love QB · Travis Kelce TE · Ladd McConkey WR · David Montgomery RB · Parker Washington WR · Deebo Samuel WR · George Kittle TE · Rashid Shaheed WR · Seahawks DST DST · Jake Bates K · Bryce Young QB · Brenton Strange TE · Christian Kirk WR · Stefon Diggs WR
Projections blend fifteen public sources, with scoring differences normalized. Seasons are simulated on your real 14-game schedule with real 2026 byes; each player scores from a right-skewed distribution calibrated so weekly team totals swing 25 to 30 points, matching real fantasy scoring. Lineups optimize weekly, empty slots fill at waiver level, and you get a disclosed 0.8-point bonus per streamed slot for waiver skill (Dane and Austin get 0.3). Injuries draw from published base rates (roughly 2.4 missed games per season for an early-round running back, 3 percent per week for quarterbacks) plus every named situation in the August news. Your assumptions are the default: no Jacobs suspension (10 percent residual), Nacua plays Week 1.
Projections and ranks: FantasyPros (106-expert superflex consensus), CBS Sports, ESPN, Sleeper/RotoWire, Footballguys, Draft Sharks, 4for4, PFN, NFL.com, PFF, NBC/Rotoworld, Underdog, FantasyFootballCalculator, Yahoo. Strategy research: Alex Cates positional-value study, Draft Sharks superflex mocks, CBS, FTN, FantasyPros, RotoBanter and ProFootballLogic injury data, PFF and 4for4 kicker and defense studies, SI. Byes and schedule: NFL.com, Fox Sports, Sharp Football Analysis (all three confirm the six-team Week 11). Player status: team sites, ESPN, NBC/PFT, SI, Yahoo, CBS, The Athletic, DraftSharks, PlayerProfiler and local beat coverage, all current to August 25, 2026. Anything after that date is not in here.